Empirical research of extreme events, since 1977
Michael Markowski
He finds the cause of market extremes, then builds the algorithm that sees the next one coming.
- Sep 2007
- Sep 2018
- Jan 2020
- Mar 23 2020
- years in the capital markets
- 49
- years in the capital markets
- media-verifiable predictions published before the event
- 9
- media-verifiable predictions published before the event
- major U.S. brokers whose 2008 collapse he called in 2007
- 5
- major U.S. brokers whose 2008 collapse he called in 2007
- first year of market data in his research
- 1871
- first year of market data in his research
- Fortune 50 Great Investors, 2003
- Top 50
- Fortune 50 Great Investors, 2003
The method
From one extreme event to the algorithm that calls the next
Step 1 of 4
An extreme event occurs
Enron, December 2001, then the largest U.S. bankruptcy.
The record
Predictions published before the event
Every entry below was published or broadcast on the date shown, before the outcome it describes.
Dec 2002
Inc. magazine
Cash-flow algorithm to identify “the next Enron” among healthy-looking large caps
Jan 2003
Equities magazine
“OPS Not OOPS”: free-cash-flow-yield screen; two qualifying companies recommended
Dec 2003
Fortune Investor's Guide
Named one of 50 Great Investors; stock pick published
Sep 2007
Equities magazine
“Have Wall Street's Brokers Been Pigging Out?”: sell Lehman, Bear Stearns, Merrill Lynch, Morgan Stanley, Goldman Sachs
Jun 2016
michaelmarkowski.net reports
Brexit-driven crash
Sep 2018
Fox Business, Spotlight
Violent Q4 2018 correction and its cause
Jan 22, 2020
Equities.com
“Looking for Wuhan Virus to Cause Severe Market Correction or Crash”
Mar 5, 2020
BullsNBears.com
“Overvalued stocks, freefalling U.S. dollar to soon cause epic market crash” (Dow within 10% of its high)
Mar 23, 2020
CapitalWatch
“Probability is 87% that the market is at an interim bottom”
Hover, tap or press “What happened” to flip each card
Finding the next thousand-fold companies
The same method, pointed forward
Markowski researched the seed-round histories of the digital companies that multiplied a thousandfold - Airbnb, Uber and their peers - to isolate the traits they shared before anyone knew their names. The common denominator: digital products that can virally penetrate very large addressable markets, financed through continuous staged rounds at rising valuations.
Traits of a thousand-fold company
Digital-native product
The product lives in software, so serving one more customer costs very little and growth is not limited by physical assets. Airbnb began in 2007 as a website renting air mattresses in its founders' San Francisco apartment and grew without owning a single room.
Algorithms
Algorithms and frameworks
Press
Coverage and appearances
“Is Michael Markowski the 21st century's reincarnation of Benjamin Graham?”